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Old 08-11-2007, 07:41 PM
Isura Isura is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 13,926
Default Re: Spots we rarely think about

Yeah, we have about 40% equity against reasonably loose ranges. Also they have at least 25% chance to improve, and usually > 35%. We have less than 10%. OTOH there are no turn cards that we'd feel any better about putting money in, and we don't have a robust enough holding to call a 2 street bluff. But we can call turn some of the time so to cut down on being exploitable. But by checking we just give 6+ out hands a free shot at a 12bb pot, and don't make up much in return for the times we get him to bluff.

I think a really important factor here is how often he c/r. SSNL opponents don't bluff c/r enough as carrot mentioned, so I think betting for protection (he will have an unpaired hand > 50% of the time) will generally be a +EV play. I would actually much rather check down a hand like A7 here.
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