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#17
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[ QUOTE ] Someone explain why JJJ wouldn't repop the flop here? [/ QUOTE ] If he expects to be agaisnt a straight draw/flush draw combo, then he wants the turn to blank as the guy will almost certainly bet again, this time as a 75/25 dog rather than a 55/45 dog. Most players dont fold a draw on the turn so it saves money the times it hits the turn and doesn't save the opponent money the time it misses on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] Rib, I'm not sure I agree with this. Say we have JJJ on this flop and we're in position. When we get CHECK/RAISED I think it means one of two things most of the time. Either we're up against smaller set 888/555 or a combo draw. Now, I understand the point of seeing safe turn cards. I take that line a lot actually, but not here and I really don't see why a villian would either. c/r a multiway pot = strength, and we would be happy to get it in on the flop with JJJ, right? Calling and seeing a safe turn with top set after our opponent c/r a multi way pot just doesn't make sense. Calling and seeing the turn: 1) We still stack a flopped set almost always when its safe 2) When its a scare card, it KILLS our action from sets. 3) BUT, when we're up against combo draws we can save money 4) When its a safe card, a combo draw might slowdown. 5) If the combo draw still leads out, then we get it all in. And have to dodge some cards anyway. Pushing the flop: 1) We stack lower sets ALWAYS. 2) We get it in vs a combo draw almost always. 3) The times the draw hits on the turn, we still have 10 outs on the river. 4) If turn is a blank, and combo draw hits on river then thats the same thing as #5 above. Its no different if we just called and saw the blank then shoved. Same thing gonna happen. I'd much rather get it in on the flop vs the {555/888/ComboDraw} range then to see a turn card. The turn scare card slows down smaller sets and allows combodraws to fire out OR we get it all in anyway when its safe. Why risk seeing a turn card at all? Get the stack in, EVEN if we're up against a combo draw AND it hits on the turn, we STILL have 10 outs on the river. EDIT: Agree with Full-Metall, def bet larger on river. |
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