#19
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Re: Hmmm...
If you are thinking about betting the river, doesn't that mean that you should have raised the turn? I mean I think this hand comes down to if this guy is a good player or a bad player. Because if he is good, you are probably about to get checkraised, and if he is bad he probably has AA or AJ or QT(or KK) and you should bet.
Unfortunately at this point you haven't played with him much, so you don't have a solid read on him. In general I presume people I have never played with before are bad until proven otherwise. But more than that, you can look at how he played this hand to guess if he is good or bad. To me, his flop and turn action say "I'm a bad player" because it makes sense with no hands. Since he can't have AKd he either has a big pair, AJ, or a draw like QT or diamonds. Both of these draws are sorta hard given the preflop action and the fact that you have the Kd, but still possible. Now based on your pf and flop action, he has to put you on a big pair or draw, but again the draw is difficult since KQ is probably not capping the flop and there just aren't that many diamond hands that 3bet preflop. So if he has a big hand he should be confident that you are going to bet the turn if checked to, and he should raise, and if he has a draw he should know that you aren't going to fold anything, especially to a bet bet turn river line. Not to mention that him having a draw makes it even harder for you to have one as well. Now its possible that he bet the turn hoping to go three bets, but he has to realize that leading when the board pairs makes it less likely that you will raise (again this is just trying to figure out if he is good or bad). So it seems to me that he is just overaggressive and not thinking beyond the point of "must not give draw free cards." I still think raising the turn is probably better than calling, but it is very close and not really the point of your post. So the flop and turn action make me think that he is bad and therefore bet the turn because he put you on a draw, and checked when the draw got there because he doesn't want to get raised. So I bet the river. |
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