Soccer - Correct Score > Winner?

[MrBlueNose]

Generally, most people either stick to the overall result of the game, or use the asian handicap. However there is a lot more potential bets out there.

One of them, is betting the "correct score". Now at this time I haven't did any real math on this, although I probably will when I get home from cottage, but right now I wanted to write up a post about it, see what others think - maybe I am an idiot missing out on something [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

So let's take the Derby vs Portsmouth game first of all, which a few 2p2ers have tipped Portsmouth. Let's take Portsmouth to win. I'll use Betfair for all odds for ease of use. Odds on Portsmouth to win are 2.44, so if we bet $1,000 we would profit $1440.00 every time Portsmouth win.

Now we go to the Correct Score. Again, we are betting on Portsmouth to win. Lets look at some of the potential scores, with odds in brackets:

1-0 (8)
2-0 (14)
3-0 (34)
2-1 (10.5)
3-1 (27)
3-2 (40)
Any Unquoted (17)

So that's 7 bets. You don't HAVE to do the latter one, but I think for now we'll include it. This is where some calculations and actual work would have to be done to determine whether this has long-term +EV.

So 7 bets. 1000/7 = $142.86 approx. So if we put $142.86 on every bet, we'd make:

1-0 $1000.02
2-0 $1857.18
3-0 $4714.38
2-1 $1357.17
3-1 $3714.36
3-2 $5571.54
Unquoted $2285.76

Now I haven't done the math behind it yet, but by risking the exact same amount as an out and out win, for this particular game, I'd see a profit value of about $1700-$1800.

So am I missing anything here? Of course you'd have to pick and choose your games carefully. But even Man Utd vs Reading where odds are like 1.25 for Man Utd, the lowest is Any Unquoted at 5, meaning as long as Man Utd win, we'd still be making money.

Thoughts? Am I an idiot missing something glaringly obvious? Should I just put it all on black instead [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]