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Hi.
I'd like some feedback on a type of hand that's causing me some trouble. I've figured out lately this kind of hand is probably a leak in my game. This morning, i ran into a perfect example that i'm posting here. It's a full ring NL200 game at Full tilt and i pick up QQ in the big blind. There's an early position limper and everyone folds to the small blind, who raises it to $8. Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.comFlopTurnRiver.com (Format: Plain Text) MP3 ($198) CO ($266.15) Button ($176.40) SB ($279.85) BB ($179.60) Hero ($209.40) UTG+1 ($193) MP1 ($273.15) MP2 ($112.75) Preflop: Hero is UTG with Qc, Qh. Hero posts a blind of $2. 1 fold, MP1 calls $2, 4 folds, SB raises to $9, Hero (poster) raises to $28, 1 fold, SB calls $18. Flop: ($57) 4d, Td, 7s (3 players) SB bets $30, Hero raises to $60, SB calls $30. Turn: ($177) 4h (3 players) SB checks... Here's what know about the small blind guy: he's a semi-loose guy with pretty much standard aggression (24/10/2.7). I have not seen him picking on limpers with any two and i have not seen him make any spectacular moves or anything so far. I'm guessing his range for this raise is something like AT+, KJ+, some suited connectors and 22+. My image at this table is probably tightish/aggressive. I have not made any squeeze plays (which i guess this might look like). I'm not merely calling with this hand to mine a set, so i reraise him pot. I figure i beat a lot of his range and i have position on him. The limper folds as expected and SB calls my raise. Now that's a sign of strength. He's not the kind of donk who can't let a bluff go. I'd say this tightens his range up to AQs+, AK and pairs, probably something like 88+. On a 47T flop with two diamonds, he bets out $30 into the $54 pot. Here's where i need to make a smart decision, but i'm not sure i did. I raise him up to $60 and he calls. To me, this looks like a probe-type bet, but his subsequent call worries me. To me, this tightens up his range even further. I doubt he's go a set. I don't think he'd make the preflop raise/call with 44 or 77 and i don't think he'd play TT like this on the flop. He could be playing AK of diamonds like this. He might also put me on an AK type of hand or a lower pair and make this call with 88, 99 or JJ. He might be slowplaying AA or KK (or playing KK really cautiously, fearing i have AA). The turn comes another four, which i assume doesn't change the situation at all. He checks. The pot is $174. What do i do now? Can i bet less than all in here? I don't think so. I'm thinking if i go all in, i'll only get called by a better hand - AA, KK or the unlikely TT and maybe AdKd (which would make me a 68% favourite). Checking behind then? I'd keep the pot size down and possibly induce a bluff with some of the hands that i beat. So the all-in bet is no good, right? If i check and he shoves on the river, do i call him (having induced a bluff)? I'll press the stop button there and ask for some feedback. Is my preflop reraise bad (i don't think so). Is my minraise of his flop bet bad? I don't like it, but what's the alternative? Folding to a probe type bet seems really weak. Calling accomplishes very little in my opinion and shoving on the flop will make the hands i beat fold and i'll get called by hands that beat me (unless he makes a really tight KK fold). Is calling the flop and folding to a turn bet the best play? If the turn goes check-check and bets out on the river, do i have a call or am i done with the hand after his bet-call on the flop? It looks to me like this guy is willing to play his hand for stacks and it looks to me like i might be way behind. |
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