50NL: Getting sucked in as I keep seeing the right odds

[Chomp]

Villain 26/20/4, 80 hands. No direct history at this table, but villain is playing exactly as you'd expect a decent TAG to play.

This is a common problem - you feel you are being offered the odds at every point and simultaneously feel you have very little FE against better hands, so you call along. This of course is a killer when you just have to fold in the end.

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Converter at Talking-Poker

saw flop | <font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Button ($51.41)
SB Hero ($49.50)
BB ($67.49)
UTG <font color="#C00000">UTG ($50.00)</font>
UTG+1 ($52.55)
CO <font color="#C00000">CO ($50.30)</font>

Preflop: Hero is in the SB with Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
1 fold, CO raises to $2.00, 1 fold, Hero raises to $7.00, 1 fold, CO raises to $12.00, Hero calls $5.00.

Flop (24.50) K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero checks, CO bets $11.00, Hero calls $11.00.

Turn (46.50) 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero checks, CO moves all-in for $27.30, Hero folds

.................................


So preflop when he mini 4bs I am getting 4/1 on my money:

Hand 0: 28.607% { AdQd }
Hand 1: 71.393% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

(Making it KK+ makes surprisingly little equity difference).


On flop I am getting 3/1 AND he might just have whiffed or have QQ- AND his bet is so weak:

Board: Kh 2c As
Hand 0: 23.706% { AdQd }
Hand 1: 76.294% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }


Finally, by the time villain bets the turn, QQ disappears from his range IMO, and we now know we are toast despite getting 2.7/1 on our money. Worse still, we are toast light almost half a BI!

What do you do throughout?

Thanks.