3000th+ post, OMG! You can manipulate your opponents' cards!

[Sherman]

So I didn't write a big long post for the 3000th post like many posters do. But since then, I remembered that there is something I have been thinking about writing for a while. So here it is, my 3000th+ post:



A while back ago I realized something that made me a lot better at poker. I realized I could manipulate my opponents' cards. That's right. I can manipulate the cards that my opponent holds. What? You still don't believe me? Okay, let me demonstrate.


Let's say its the middle of a tournament. Both you and villain have been aggressive and have decent stack sizes with Ms > 20.

You are dealt AK in MP and raise to 3xBB. Everyone folds to the villain, in the BB who calls.

The flop is a beautiful A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

In standard 2+2 fashion, the villain checks and you bet 3/4 pot. Villain just calls.

The turn is 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

The villain checks once again. You bet 1/2 the pot. Villain calls.

The river is 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

The villain checks once again. You again bet 1/2 the pot and villain shoves for the rest of his stack. You fold.


What happened here? First, notice that villain's most likely holding is 88 or 22 for a set. Second, notice that the previously aggressive villain has suddenly played a hand very passively until the river. Against a decent, aggressive, and thinking opponent, our hero in this hand probably should have been very wary of an aggressive villain check/calling this drawless board, and probably should have checked the river. The problem with the river bet is that villain's hand range has changed. Before the flop, villain might have had this hand range: 22+,AJo+,ATs+. By the river however, his range has changed dramatically. He called two fairly large bets on a drawless board. His range on the river is probably AK,88,22. And that's it. How did it get there? Well he could call your flop bet with a wide range of hands hoping you would slow down on the turn. So let's say on the flop his range moved to 22,88+,AJo+,ATs+.

But on the turn, is he ever calling another large bet w/out a strong hand? Very unlikely from a villain who we know to be aggressive. So his post-turn range is probably 22,88,AQ+. He might even dump AQ at this point.

Thus, on the river, we are only value betting against AQ, and many villain's would fold AQ on the river (if they haven't already) to this sort of action. So our "value" bet on the river is a bad decision.



But wait a minute. This post is supposed to be about manipulating your opponents' cards. A keen reader will note however, that I just showed you how by betting each street, you can change your opponent's hand range. By the river, our opponents' hand range went from wide PF to very tight by the river. So by betting we have "manipulated" our opponent's cards. However, by the river we have manipulated them in such a fashion that we make a -EV bet on the river.


But there is good news! If betting manipuates an opponent's hand range to be narrower, is there some way to manipulate his range to be wider? The answer is yes----by checking.

So let's replay our example hand again:

You are dealt AK in MP and raise to 3xBB. Everyone folds to the villain, in the BB who calls.

The flop is a beautiful A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

In standard 2+2 fashion, the villain checks and you bet 3/4 pot. Villain just calls.

The turn is 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

The villain checks once again. Instead of betting this time however, now we check.

The river is 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

The villain checks once again. You again bet 1/2 the pot and villain calls.


In this scenario, we are quite likely to win the hand. Many posters will recognize this turn check, as a check for pot control. However, it is more than just that. Replay this hand through the villain's eyes. You raised PF and made a standard c-bet on the flop. Again, his range going into the turn is the same as above: 22,88+,AJo+,ATs+. But now you check the turn rather than bet. By checking rather than betting, we have "manipulated" his hand range to be exacly the same going into the turn as going into the river. Now when we bet the river, we actually are betting for value. We can still fold to a river check/raise, but now villain might call our river bet with a wide range of hands including 99-KK,AJ,AT. Thus, by checking the turn, we have manipulated his river hand range to make a +EV play.


The example hand above was chosen because it is a very simple and straightfoward example. And many regular posters will recognize it as standard, but there are many many many other examples where by checking, you can manipulate your opponents' hand ranges. In a hand I posted yesterday, I was able to manipulate an opponent into stacking off with a hand that he certainly would have folded if I bet. It is linked here.


Here is another example:

The button open limps. You complete with A2o in the SB. The BB checks.

The flop is A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

If you bet here, you can almost always expect to get called by only better hands. But you can check to wider your opponents' hand ranges on the turn. You check and it checks around. The turn is a 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Now you bet. The BB folds and the button calls. The river is a 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. You bet and the button calls. He shows QJo. Had you led the flop, he may have folded this hand figuring your for an A in a multi-way pot. But your flop check manipulated him into playing a hand he otherwise would have folded. You manipulated his hand range.


Anyhow, many times people point out that you are either WA/WB and should check. Or that you should check for pot control. However, there is another reason for sometimes checking, and that is to manipulate your opponents' hand ranges to make +EV plays. I'd encourage posters to post other hands in here where they checked to manipulate their opponents' hand ranges to make a profitable play later in the hand.