Misconceptions about Me, Baye's, Rigor, Exodus, Evolution

[Phil153]

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(Thus Pair The Board's comment that I base my probability of a miracle on its non occurence so far, is wrong. I also base it on the strong suspision that it can't occur. A subtle but important difference.)

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What's the strong suspicion based on? Observed non occurrence? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Personally I take a different approach. If you run Baye's Theorem on the ratio of (claims of miracles) to (verified miracles), any claim of a miracle is instantly an incredible long shot to be true. This goes all the way from the guy performing magic tricks on the street to the flood myth in Genesis.

And there's another approach as well - anything that holds humans in a privileged position is a massive underdog to be true, as a huge number of privileged position claims have been shown to be false, and none shown to be true. In fact it's so unreliable, that the utterances of those who believe in privileged position have about the same usefulness as cow farts.