#8
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Re: $25 NL facing a river raise
Your line looks ok to me - you can bet a little less on the flop (not a big deal).
Let's think about the villains stats - 50/12/1 50 vpip - This guy plays a lot of hands, and it's a blind battle, he could be holding almost ATC here. 12 pfr - This is on the tighter end of preflop raising, but I've tried a style around this range. He'd probably re-raise big overpairs here preflop (AA,KK,etc) 1 ag - He's really passive. A turn raise from someone with this is a lot of trouble. Flop - c-bet is standard Turn - I think you have to bet here for value - he could have any J or 9 on the flop that just called. River - This is a lot closer. I like a check, here's why (my original thought was value bet, but I have new reasoning Betting the river: Pros: prevents a big bluff, we have showdown value Cons: We're behind almost all other Ax combos. AK, AJ, A9, A7 we're ahead of. We tie AQ. We only are really beating A8 and AT here, and neither make a lot of sense because he called your flop bet. Checking the river: Pros: Pot control, might induce a bluff from a weird draw hand Cons: Might miss value if he's a total moron with something like JT. I like a check/call. If you do bet, go smaller, like 1/2 pot. |
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