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Old 08-07-2007, 02:19 PM
z28dreams z28dreams is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Donating at the tables
Posts: 2,791
Default Re: $25 NL facing a river raise

Your line looks ok to me - you can bet a little less on the flop (not a big deal).

Let's think about the villains stats - 50/12/1

50 vpip - This guy plays a lot of hands, and it's a blind battle, he could be holding almost ATC here.

12 pfr - This is on the tighter end of preflop raising, but I've tried a style around this range. He'd probably re-raise big overpairs here preflop (AA,KK,etc)

1 ag - He's really passive. A turn raise from someone with this is a lot of trouble.

Flop - c-bet is standard

Turn - I think you have to bet here for value - he could have any J or 9 on the flop that just called.

River - This is a lot closer. I like a check, here's why (my original thought was value bet, but I have new reasoning

Betting the river:

Pros: prevents a big bluff, we have showdown value

Cons: We're behind almost all other Ax combos. AK, AJ, A9, A7 we're ahead of. We tie AQ. We only are really beating A8 and AT here, and neither make a lot of sense because he called your flop bet.

Checking the river:
Pros: Pot control, might induce a bluff from a weird draw hand
Cons: Might miss value if he's a total moron with something like JT.

I like a check/call. If you do bet, go smaller, like 1/2 pot.
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