A new can we fold to 3-bet preflop thread

[Apanage]

My last thread was a little bit confusing since it contained two examples of potential raise/fold to 3-bets which are different. We are no longer discussing folding to a 3-bet from SB since we have position on him (even if I wanted to discuss this more it wouldn´t get anywhere).


I have never folded to a 3-bet preflop in my life during my 500k+ career so I would appreciate if you would leave out word as bananas. idiot, and retard in your posts.
I would like answers or thoughts that are less of the nature: “You can´t fold preflop to a 3-bet.period” and that have more of a mathematical approach. No metagame considerations has to be taken. This situation probably comes up every 10-20 K hands ore so.

Here are the conditions:


You raise A4o/A5o from CO and you get 3-bet by a Tight solid TAG from button.Everyone is folding back to you.Could it not be a better decision to fold this hand or am I way off thinking about it.
His calculated hand range is 77+,A9s,KJs,AJo which is 9.7% of all hands.
Our preflop equity against his range is worth ~ 0.7BB (our EV)if we put in another bet (our EV minus the bet we put in).And that includes when we suck him out on turn and river which we never get the chance to do if we don´t connect to the flop so our equity is even less if our intentions are to fold a flop which that we are not connecting to.
We are always paying him 2.5 BB when we both have aces which is a huge amount given that our preflop equity is worth 0.7BB and that A-hands are approximately 60% (pure guess I don´t bother to count) of his hand combos. Plus he could hit a set if he has a PP.
Pretty much most probable hands (a pair) that we want to take to showdown suffers from the fact that we will lose close to 1 BB more when we are behind than when we are ahead.
We are also for sure the most likely player in the hand to fold the best hand somewhere along the way. We are also for sure the most likely player to give freecards.
Sure we can hit big hands like two pair, paired board trips and straights and get paid. But remember that A5 just makes straights one way (with both hole cards) and that every two pair hand has a lot of outs against it if you´re up against another A-hand. And if you checkraise your two pair hand you risk folding out an eventual PP from villain somewhere.


To say that we not should raise A5o if we can´t handle a 3-bet from a player that reraises us from button 9.7% of the times is not correct. He is folding so many hands that would have great equity in the pot (if he knew that I had A5o) if we raise that it would be profitable even if we would find that a fold to a 3-bet were not appropriate.And remember if we found it appropriate then both the raise and fold are correct.

The question is really. Can we ever manage to lose less than our preflop equity of 0.7 BB postflop considering that he does not spew anything postflop?

I also quote Sqvirrel:

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I raise fold on occasion, but only with a dominatable ace out of position against a tight raiser.

My rationale is that I'm really only flopping to hit an A and maybe win. If all my ace outs are good I will flop an A 16% of the time which means it is zero EV for me to even call the 3-bet. But that's assuming my A outs are good. Around half the time that an A flops I am going to lose - either to a set or a better A - and my odds of making a good hand with my crap kicker are negligible.

I probably find a raise/fold spot less than once/week so I know it isn't exploitable, but it is no less correct when it comes up.

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