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big draws w/o fold equity
here's a situation that comes up occasionally when i play and i'm curious if some math will show that i'm doing the wrong thing. i'm going to try to keep it simple.
5/10 nl, $1000 stacks. i raise T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] to $35, everyone folds to bb who raises to $110, i call. flop($225) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] bb bets $200. now, my read on him is he's a got an overpair always, for the sake of simplicity let's say he has A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. i can raise and he will push and we will get all-in and i'm actually a slight favorite with my big draw. this is what i always do. however what i've been wondering is, would it be more correct to just call the flop and re-evaluate based on the turn card? assume bb pushes any turn (we will have about a pot-sized bet on the turn). is peeling a card better if that means we have to fold some turns but get all-in with much better equity other times? also note i'm giving him the ace of hearts which will help his redraws when i do hit my flush outs, if weighting all combos of AA/KK doesn't make the calculations too much more difficult that might answer the question more accurately. |
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