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I've been thinking recently about hands where I am leading postflop, I make it expensive for a villain to outdraw me, and I end up paying him off when he does. Am I making the bigger mistake of paying him off or is he the one making the mistake by calling? I listed an example below where I was leading on the flop, and I end up giving the SB (who had 89) 1.6:1 odds of making his OESD on the turn. So ... ((6:1 - 1.6:1) * $36) = $158.4 that villain has to make every time he calls my raise. (Straight Odds- Pot Odds) * Pot Size. Now villain made his straight in this example and I paid him off - which afterwards I figured I made the larger mistake because I put $300 in the pot when I only expect to get ~ $26 back on average (outdrawing villains straight by making a full house on the river)
And this is where I get confused because villain WONT make $158.4 on average since he does not hit his straight enough times to make calling my flop raise profitable ... I don't know, can anyone help explain to me.. I have to be making the MUCH bigger mistake since I put in $300 when I was behind and villain only put in $36 when he was behind... right? SB: $493.00 BB: $190.00 UTG: $48.00 Hero (CO): $337.45 BTN: $218.15 Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 Players) UTG calls $2.00, Hero calls $2.00, BTN folds, SB calls $1.00, BB checks Flop: ($8) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 Players) SB checks, <font color="red">BB bets $8.00</font>, UTG calls $8.00, <font color="red">Hero raises to $36.00</font>, SB calls $36.00, BB calls $28.00, UTG calls $28.00 Turn: ($152) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 Players) SB checks, <font color="red">BB bets $56.00</font>, UTG calls all-in for $10.00, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $299.45</font>, SB calls $299.45, BB calls all-in for $96.00 River: ($912.90) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 Players - 3 All-In) Pot Size: $912.90 ($3 Rake) |
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