Boat facing overbet , 200BBs deep, 5/10

ocklind · #1 07-27-2007, 08:21 AM

Villain is running at 28/18/1,5/31% (VPIP/PFR/TOTAL AF/WTSD%) over 207 hands. His flop AF is seemingly low, only 1,25.

Although his WTSD of 31% he has showed mostly legitimate hands.

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $5/$10 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $1,816.00
BB: $1,724.90
UTG: $727.49
MP: $2,451.25
Hero (CO): $2,075.00
BTN: $1,697.55

Preflop: Hero is dealt 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG folds, MP raises to $35.00, Hero calls $35.00, 3 folds

Flop: ($85) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP checks, Hero bets $60.00, MP calls $60.00

He check/calls the flop, I figure his range could be AK,AQ,T9,98,22,44,55,66,88,99,TT and maybe a slowplaying JJ. I rule out 76s-ish hands since I have already seen three sevens. I think he would most likely bet 33 and any other hit w/ a J, or an overpair.

Turn: ($205) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP checks, Hero bets $145.00, MP raises to $290.00, Hero calls $145.00

This is very weird to me, I dont put him on J8 when raising UTG, that firstly check/called the flop and then C/R minimum on the turn. I think T9, what else could he have? I just call since I dont think he will call me w/ much worse that played THAT passive on the flop.

River: ($785) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP bets all-in for $2,066.25


I fill up and figure but still figure if I can call. I've greatly underrepped my hand I am suddenly afraid of J8. His UTG PFR raise doesnt have to mean a premium hand since I only have 207 hands on him. I now can put him on AJ as well, for a slow/weird played TPTK, but I still dont know what to do? As I stated earlier I think he would bet the flop w/ a jack.