NL200 - flop a combo draw

[Mike MacIntosh]

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A ruff idea of your equity against his calling range.

Hand 0: 37.899% 37.90% 00.00% 9380 0.00 { 5s4s }
Hand 1: 62.101% 62.10% 00.00% 15370 0.00 { 66, 22, AsQs, AJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As5s, As4s, As3s, KsQs, AJo }

Lets assume we are a 2 to 1 dog when called.

GRUNCH METHOD

+266 -210 -210 +90 +90

We need villain to fold roughly 40% of the time for this to be 0EV.

That number seems to be unrealistic since villain has a monster most of the time here. Therefor I fold like a little girl.

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can you explain the math here? i can do it slowly with excel, but i'd like to see this fancy grunch method.

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