NL200 - flop a combo draw

[bilbo-san]

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i would jam here. he will sometimes fold a marginal flush draw, i think. and if you do get ai vs a bigger flush draw, you're not totally hosed unless he has JsXs. villain will also fold Jx sometimes, and sometimes he will be screwing around and have air or second pair or whatever, even though it is a 3 way pot.

as for the question of pushing vs making an obviously pc'ing raise, i dunno. i'd be surprised if it mattered that much, but if someone had some huge datamined sample or something i'd be curious to see it.

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Yeah, he folds Jx sometimes, but he rarely has Jx, or if he has Jx, and decided to raise with it, he probably wasn't taking a raise/fold line, cause no one ever does that with top pair.

If you push and he folds, it's probably something like a higher flush draw or pure snow.

So, as Mike pointed out, he needs to be on a higher flush draw (but not the NFD because that often calls) or snow > 40% of the time.

That's very wishful thinking.