Facing River Overbet Shove vs. "FBT" Mueller

[ezmogee]

Hey guys:

So I decide to play FBT because I've never heard anything too impressive about him, and get the feeling that he doesn't play that well online.

He seems to love the pot button and like to fire multiple streets. I've also seen him mix things up vs me, like checking behind a flopped pair of aces in position.

We've been playing for about 25 minutes. He had the better of me at the beginning check raising a couple of flops, and I folded to a couple of second barrells, before I figured out what was going on.

Since then I've called down 2 barrells a couple of times with 2nd/3rd pair type hands and have evened up the match. About 3 hands earlier, I also bluff raised a river though I didn't show it. I have to assume that Greg is not a total idiot and is capable of picking up on the fact that I am now calling down lightly. I fully expect him to try and run a big 3-barrell bluff at some point as he's got to figure I won't call the third shot. Thus far, he's checked instead of going the distance after 2 big bets.

For whatever reason, my comp didn't log this hand, so I'll retype it from memory.

Effective stack sizes are $1500. We are HU.

I open on the button with KJo to 30, FBT calls.

Flop is K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

FBT checks, I bet 48, he thinks and quickly min-raises to 96. I debate 3-betting here, but I feel like my hand plays really well against his range of min-raising hands here. I think his most likely hands are QJ or some sort of flush draw. He might have a lone ten.

Turn: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Board: K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

FBT pretty quickly full pots for $250. I pretty much expected as much and I call. I considered raising, but stack sizes make that a bit awkward. The queen is obv a good for me as it makes me open ended. This increases me equity against his range, esp bc I think QJ makes up a big part of it.

It's very likely he picked up a pair to go along with his straight or flush draw.

River: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Board: K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

FBT pretty quickly overbets $1150 into the $750 pot.

I don't suck out if he turned QT which is a hand I think may be in his range. Based on my experience in 50 hands or so thus far, I'm almost positive I won't get shown KQ or KT based on how he played the flop.

It now occurs to me that J9 is also in his range if QJ is as well. I'm pretty sure he would've put in a real check raise with AJ so I'm not too concerned about that. But these guys sometimes like to take a shot and minraise with the QJ open ended or J9 gutter.

Also, by overbetting he takes away some of my odds in terms of what % I have to make the right call. I'm calling $1150 to win $1850 so I'm getting like 1.65:1

I have to assume he's capable of firing an overbet third barrell like this as I've been calling down light constantly. I most certainly can't have a huge hand (as I haven't raised on a very draw heavy board) so this seems like the perfect time to try and take it away with QJ or a busted flush draw.

Am I overthinking this?

Thanks in advance