Some musings about the state of poker, and ......

[Bob T.]

Two posts triggered this, marmor who made one of the first pokertracker post that I can remember in some time, and malicor who made a post trying to get an idea about the mathematical relative value of hands. So, off on a long and winding road for a little bit. Did I mention that I have a cold, and am full of cold medicine.

Anyway, for any of you who have been in a cave without internet access for the past five years, online poker has changed. Alot. When I started to play about 7 years ago, one of my friends, told me his guideline was to find a 30-7 game, 30% to the flop, and at least 7BBs average pot, put his name on the list, and jump in. You could log in, and find multiple games on each site and limit that fit that description. You could only play one or two of them, because that was the extent of multitabling back then. Maybe once a week, you might find a 40-10 game. A multitude of influences have made it so that those games just don't exist anymore in the online world. ( I think they do exist live, and probably will for some time.) In those games, if you could be disciplined, wait for opportunities where you had a big edge, and value bet the hell out of your edge, you could be a significant winner. In my experience, you can probably still do this in live games, at least up through 10-20, and I don't have enough experience higher to comment on whether it is frequently possible.

Now, I want to take you on a side trip, back to the beginning of your poker career, you played live 2-4 or 3-6, or maybe online .50/1.00, but you dreamed of playing higher. Sometimes, while you were waiting for a seat, you sat on the rail and watched some players playing higher, maybe 200-400 live, or 30-60 online. (Man, the SB is as big as a buy-in for me). Anyway, as you got better, you played tighter and tighter, and you assumed at these monstrous stakes, the players would all be much better, and therefore, much tighter. But the game you watched didn't play that way. In fact, to you, it looked like goofy poker. Players showing down A-high, against bottom pair, 'Man, if you could only get a bankroll, you could crush these goofballs'. But now you know better, they weren't playing the way you expected, because at those limits, you can't wait for a big edge, and try and push it, because the blinds will eat you alive, and the players will adapt to your style. They were fighting over small edges, and trying to make the most of every situation.

Well, what has happened, is that the games have gotten tougher, and the players that are winning, are trying to exploit smaller and smaller edges. Those weird plays that used to be reserved for the players playing high stakes, have come down to a limit near you, somewhere on the border of Small stakes, and Mid stakes.

So, back to the pokertracker post, and the mathematical value of hands preflop. A couple of years back, there was a 'here are my stats' post almost every day. Now there isn't. Why is that? Well, for starters, it isn't because people are no longer using pokertracker. I am pretty sure that there are more users than ever. But the difference is now, people realize that for the most part, you can't fix your game by fixing your pokertracker stats. Because the game has become much more situational. (There still are games, where you can just play tight-aggressive, and you will get the money, but there are fewer than there used to be.) But many more of the games, you need to be playing within the context of the game. What just happened? How did that affect the players involved. What has happened between me and my opponent in the past? What adjustment might he have made? What adjustment am I making to take advantage of what I now know about his style? What betting sequences have we used, and what was the result? What sequence should I use now to get maximum effect? What hands does he have here, and do I want to showdown? Or do I need him to make a laydown? Is that possible with what he probably has?

All of these things are things that can help you make the right decisions on a hand, and they aren't found in your or your opponents pokertracker stats.

Anyway, I think the game is more situational. I played this hand this way, against this opponent, because of what went on 15 hands ago. If you make the right adjustment more often than your opponent, you are going to come out ahead. If you don't make the right adjustment, it probably doesn't matter what your stats are, because you are making a play with the right frequency, at the wrong time. The stats don't help us figure this out, but it still costs you money in the long run.

I think that maybe I got lucky, I had a bad run a couple of years ago, and realized that I couldn't just play the same way I had been playing, because although that was effective 5,6,or 7 years ago, it wasn't effective anymore. In fact, it had fallen from a winning game, down to a breakeven game. Breakeven is nice, if you want to be entertained, for some time with your hobby, but that really isn't my goal here. If you read and participate in this forum, it probably isn't yours.

So, what do I think you have to do, to stay ahead of the pack now. Here are a couple of things to think about. Maybe once a week, play fewer tables. Think about every hand that you are involved in. Even the ones that seem straightforward. What are your opponents trying to do, with their actions? What have you said about your hand with your actions? Think for a second about all your alternatives while you are waiting to act. What would each one mean right now, and how might that make the hand play out.

When the hand is over, look for a second at what happened. What decisions did your opponents make? and how did they represent those decisions? Could you have made a better play at any point in the hand? Could they have made a better play? Knowing how he played this hand, what are you going to do differently in the future? If he notices how you played this hand, what might he do differently in the future, and what situation can you use to exploit that?

If you do this excersize, when you go back to playing your normal roster of tables, you will probably be looking at the game with a lot more depth, and hopefully, you will be making more effective decisions, and employing the most effective actions.

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.