Barry Bonds' 756th Home Run

[vhawk01]

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Keep in mind many people thought Griffey would be the one to break Aaron's record.

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I understand that, I didn't say Arod was a favorite, I said he was probably a dog, but you don't think what happened to Griffey is LIKELY to happen to Arod do you? I mean, Griffey pretty obviously ran really bad, injury-wise. Arod probably won't go ten years without any injuries, but he also almost certainly won't miss as much time as Griffey has.

And like the previous poster said, even if Arod gets just as injured as Griffey, he will probably end up really close. Griffey's injury problems started in 2001, when he was about the same age Arod is now. He had 438 homers at that point. ARod already has 497. Griffey has still managed to hit 150 homers since his injuries started, and he might hit another 50 before he retires. If Arod only produces at the same level Griffey has been during the last 6 years, he will STILL end up with 700, maybe more. Griffey has played about 92 games/season since 2001. If Arod manages to get in 130, or 50% more, he should hit around 800 homers. If he manages to get lucky and avoid any injury, and play as long as Bonds has....well, we'll all be laughing about this silly little "Bonds being the Home Run King" thing.

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Let's not forget that Bonds has a good chance of reaching 800 homeruns himself. He's not going to retire after hitting number 756. If/when he eventually plays for a American League team, where he can DH and not have to play defense, after this season and then play 2-3 more years of 20-30 homeruns per season gives him 810-820+.

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Good point, although, in the context of "its disgusting that Bonds is dethroning Aaron" its really more important that ARod just gets to 755. Sort of.