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Old 07-21-2007, 07:40 PM
Gap23Razor Gap23Razor is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: lost in though
Posts: 637
Default Re: drawing hand

[ QUOTE ]
Here is my further analysis.

Flop (This assume you don't c/r): It's 8SBs to you on the flop. I give you only 3.5 discounted outs (2 twos, 1.5 aces due to diamonds and reverse dom). So you have just over 7% chance to make your hand, yet you're putting in 12% of the pot. Fold

Turn: One clean two left, 1.5 for the aces, and 3 clean 3 for 5.5 outs. You make your hand about 12% of the time.

It's 8 sbs to you so I guess this is barely a call.

I suck at making decisions before doing the calcs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mr Befolder...on the flop i count up the outs a little different...

1 for the overcard A, 1 for the backdoor flush draw in spades, 3 for the gut shot draw (just 3 with two diamonds on the flop and we are drawing to the low end)...i usually give no weight to undercard as i am likely behind even if i pair it...with 5 outs i would call if i thought the pot would be 10 times the amount i will put in on the round...

did i miscount or overvalue something here?
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