have I been playing my flush draws wrong

[MrGladstone]

OK, I think I proved to myself why the flush comes in more often...I think it is similar to the Monte Hall type problem. I was assuming that since you always pick up 3 more outs on the turn for the trip draw (to full house/quads) you could effectively say you have 10 outs for the hand from the flop on. But even though you always pick up the extra outs, they don't come into play until the turn, if that makes sense.

So on the flop the trips have 7 outs to improve by the TURN. The flush draw has 9. The trips pick up 3 more outs on the turn.

Thus using the rules of 4 and two I calculate for the flush draw:

% win = 9 outs * 4% = 36%.

For the trips, 7 outs can improve on the flop or river:
% win for 7 outs = 7 x 4 = 28%. The trips pick up 3 outs on the turn for 3 x 2% (e.g, and additional 6%). So using these rough calclulations the trips would improve 28 + 6 = 34 % of the time (vs the previously calculated 36% for the flush draw).

I feel better now.