Rainkhan and the 33 versus Alex Kravchenko

[pineapple888]

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As pineapple says, I expected the early open from Kravchenko to be tight enough that I didn't think that 33's equity was going to be that great.

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I would think a good shortstack player should have a relatively wide range there. any pair, most hands with 2 face cards, some high suited connectors.

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Okay, here's a range which captures a lot of that.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

3,071,873,376 games 0.032 secs 95,996,043,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.315% 44.71% 00.60% 1373553804 18464646.00 { 33 }
Hand 1: 54.685% 54.08% 00.60% 1661390280 18464646.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A5o+, KTo+, QJo }

45.3% equity does not thrillify me down to my delicatesticles in that spot. From what people have said earlier in the thread, it's probably slightly chip EV at that point. But this neglects that Rahme will occasionally have a huge hand and will call; I don't think you have to remove too many of the non-pair hands from his range to make this pretty uncomfortable; and with the BB having a pretty decent chance of calling, Khan is likely to gain some equity from that clash as well. I will say that after looking at it more carefully the shove is not as bad as I thought, but I wouldn't have made it myself.

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Once you count the first place overlay, I now think it's very close. The better a player you are, the more you should lean towards a fold.