insane push or standard?

[Todd Terry]

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There's 11K in the pot when Temp pushes for 25K more. Assuming an overpair where he is a 60-40 dog if called:

EV(push) = 11000p + (.4(36000) - .6(25000))(1-p)

where p = probability Villian folds to a push

EV > 0 if p > .05

Which means that if the probability of Villian folding an overpair is greater than 5%, shoving is a +EV play. Which means you have to shove, because with a random player I think it's well above 50%.

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You should realize that while this proves that the shove is +cEV it does not prove that it is the maxEV. (Although I believe and I think every other poster so far agrees that once the flop gets 3 bet that the shove is indeed maxEV)

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I agree, I was just responding to the point that you had to believe that Villian would fold in order to shove here. Calculating the EV of a call would be such an effort in speculation that it would be a useless endeavor IMO.