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Overcard + FD vs. AI on Flop (math confirmation)
Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)
Hero (SB): $44.85 BB: $7.55 Villain (UTG): $14.05 CO: $10.20 BTN: $28.70 Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players) Villain calls $0.25, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, BB calls $1.00, Villain calls $1.00 Flop: ($3.75) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $2.00</font>, BB folds, <font color="red">Villain raises all-in to $12.80</font>, Hero??? I called following this logic: It costs me ~$11 to call into a pot of ~$28 which means I only need to win something like 40% of the time, which I assumed I had by counting the 3 aces as outs (12 outs then, which means I win something like 45% of the time). Is this correct? Or is my math too approximated and too reliant on the aces as outs. (I figure at the very worst, I'm like 33% to win if he has a set, and there's still a good shot that my 9 is an overcard). The guy started flaming me, but I thought it was the right call. Was I correct? |
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