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Old 07-07-2007, 08:04 PM
tannenj tannenj is offline
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Default Re: $50NL : AKs flops big draw but faces heat...

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
op,

literally no other way to play it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you feel it's not even close between shoving and folding?

[/ QUOTE ]

here's a retardedly tight range for the villain (WAY too tight based on the weakish read we have, but bear with me for the sake of discussion):

Board: Ts 8c Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.279% 41.08% 00.20% 16674 81.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 58.721% 58.52% 00.20% 23754 81.00 { JJ-TT, 88, Q9s, 97s, Q9o, 97o }

58.721/41.279 = 1.423:1, so if hero's getting at least that on a flop 3bet (i'll assume hero's shove has no fold equity), it's at least a breakeven play.

there's $16.50 of dead money in the pot, so hero's pot odds are $58.50/$42 = 1.393:1.

even if the villain's range is 100% near nuts, this is essentially a breakeven shove if there's no fold equity.

and there's no way the villain's range is even close to that tight, so i don't think this is close.
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