#10
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Re: $50NL : AKs flops big draw but faces heat...
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[ QUOTE ] op, literally no other way to play it. [/ QUOTE ] Why do you feel it's not even close between shoving and folding? [/ QUOTE ] here's a retardedly tight range for the villain (WAY too tight based on the weakish read we have, but bear with me for the sake of discussion): Board: Ts 8c Jc Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 41.279% 41.08% 00.20% 16674 81.00 { AcKc } Hand 1: 58.721% 58.52% 00.20% 23754 81.00 { JJ-TT, 88, Q9s, 97s, Q9o, 97o } 58.721/41.279 = 1.423:1, so if hero's getting at least that on a flop 3bet (i'll assume hero's shove has no fold equity), it's at least a breakeven play. there's $16.50 of dead money in the pot, so hero's pot odds are $58.50/$42 = 1.393:1. even if the villain's range is 100% near nuts, this is essentially a breakeven shove if there's no fold equity. and there's no way the villain's range is even close to that tight, so i don't think this is close. |
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