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reraise-bluffing a LAG - fine or spew?
Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)
SB: $64.05 <font color="black">Hero (BB): $197.00</font> UTG: $200.00 CO: $206.90 BTN: $201.13 <font color="black">Reads: </font><font color="blue">Villain is a strong 31/23/4 LAG</font> <font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 Players) UTG folds, CO calls $2.00, BTN calls $2.00, SB calls $1.00, <font color="red">Hero raises to $10.00</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $8.00, SB folds <font color="black">Flop:</font> ($24) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $15.00</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $30.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $60.00</font>, BTN calls $30.00 <font color="black">Turn:</font> ($144) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets all-in for $131.13</font>, Hero folds Pot Size: $275.13 My thoughts: 1. He limp-called preflop, which I see as a small pocket pair calling for set odds, maybe a small SC. 2. On the flop, he minraises me. He probably thinks I'm cbetting here (in which he is correct), but he can't have a good hand himself. 3. Therefore, a reraise should make him lay down small PPs (and air, of course). I'm representing TT+ after all. 4. But he calls my 3bet! I am lost and decide to just give it up with a check/fold. Is my line of thinking correct? +EV or -EV? |
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