Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest

[TomG]

Bodog Prop.

2007 Nathan's Famous 4th of July Hot Dog Eating Contest: How many hot dogs will the winner eat? Kobayashi and Chestnut must start the competition for action. No Parlays. Max $100

Over 57 (-125)
Under 57 (-105)

I like the under. Joey Chestnut made big news by recently breaking the world record of 59.5 hot dogs in 12 minutes. I don't know much about competitive eating, but it seems like the top scores are pretty random. Chestnut broke the world record by over over 5 hot dogs! Up until last month, the world record stood at 53.5 hot dogs. Never before has anyone in Nathan's eaten more than 57.0 hot dogs.

Past Nathan's Results (12 minute contest)...

2002 50.5 hot dogs (Kobayashi) (new world record)
2003 44.5 hot dogs (Kobayashi)
2004 53.5 hot dogs (Kobayashi) (new world record)
2005 49.0 hot dogs (Kobayashi)
2006 53.75 hot dogs (Kobayashi), 52 (Chestnut)

The recent press on Chestnut is pushing this line too high IMO. Look for results to revert to the mean. I like the under 57.0 (-105).

Even better than Bodog, VIP.com has this set at O/U 60.0 hot dogs at (-115) on both sides. Huge value on the under IMO. 60.0 would be a new world record. I maxed this one out at $500. No way is the world record broken greater than 53.5% of the time.