[NL5] Button Steal turns into draw with odds

[RipperTEQ]

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.02/$0.05 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $2.05
BB: $9.38
UTG: $6.13
UTG 1: $5.70
MP1: $10.85
MP2: $2.90
MP3: $2.93
CO: $9.35
<font color="black">Hero (BTN): $5.25</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (9 Players)
UTG folds, UTG 1 calls $0.05, 4 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.25</font>, SB folds, BB calls $0.20, UTG 1 folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($0.57) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($0.57) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $0.40</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $0.80</font>, Hero calls $0.40

<font color="black">River:</font> ($2.17) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $0.80</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $4.20</font>, BB calls $3.40

Pot Size: $10.57 ($0.50 Rake)

BB had K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and LOST (-$5.25)
Hero had 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (a straight, Deuce to Six) and WON ( $4.82)

I bought in half stack in order to play a 100BB game (didn't want to play deep to start). Only my 3rd hand at the table, checked down a made straight on the river on a 4 flush board in my first hand. I had 52 hands on villain at a previous table where he ran 42.31/0/.28. I'm figuring villain for either AK/KQ or a set once he min raised me on the turn. There's basically little chance he can put me on the straight, and it looks very bluffy to an outsider. Does the typical villain call this enough to make it +EV? I called only on implied odds and had no intention of bluffing the river because he seemed like a station.

Here's my math:

Where x = % of times villain calls river shove;

EVcallturn: .913(-.40) + .087x(5.97) + .087(1-x)(1.77) &gt; 0

-.3652 + .5194x + .1534 - .1534x &gt; 0
.366x &gt; .2118
x = 57.87%

Do I get a call from a villain with these numbers around 2/3rds of the time? I'm thinking that I will run into TPTK paying off or a set enough times here to make it +EV and since I play an otherwise very tight game and shove the nuts often, the metagame value is superb.