Bet I made with a yankees fan today

[Jon34]

After getting sick of listening to a coworker yammer on about how there is plenty of time left and the yankees will make a run, I'm offered 2:1 that the yankees don't make the playoffs. He accepted, so I'm laying $100 to win $50.

What do you think? I tried to find prop online, but the best I found was a reference to a bodog line from May 29th (about 3ish games in the standings ago) that had that same bet at +400/-700. I feel like 3 games better still shouldn't move it so much to make it a bad bet. An espn columnist (Neyer maybe?) said the other day that they have a 20-25% shot.
Do you like the bet?