Party Poker, 50NL, and the state of things

[tarheeljks]

i don't think ama is saying that large downswings are impossible. he just wants people to man up when they occur and stop chalking them up to variance and start entertaining the possibility that it may be the result of leaks and poor play.
obviously part of not hitting downswings is running well, but the more important part is playing well. if you keep getting busted by sets on rag boards when you hold QQ+, then people may be catching on that you can't lay down big pairs. plug your leak and you will find that people don't set mine against you.

if it is "so easy" to hit a 10 bi downswing (much less 17 bi), why is conventional wisdom to set your bank roll at as low as 20 bi's? in the "mathematical sense" if you are getting your money in in +ev spots, even if they are spots in which you are a marginal favorite it is unlikely that you will lose 10 consecutive bi's. obv this is subject to playing style, but i don't see many lags around the ssnl forums, so no one should be crying about variance.