Re: is this close?
ILP, you really have to start thinking in terms of a range of possible opponent profiles in addition to a range of possible hands. Even if there are a lot of opponents who could never show up with one pair there, there are plenty of others who would and those hands are so much more likely combinatorially that they need to be given a fair amount of weight. Besides that, I'd think a player who is alert enough to go for the flop/turn screwplay might lean toward slowplaying if he'd flopped something like 32 or 55, which shifts the ranges further toward some hand that found a way to improve on the turn. I think this is a trivially easy 3-bet.
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