Hand from $1500 WSOP PL

[djk123]

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I am curious how you came up with the 20% folding number. I think he almost always has a pair here, and he's never folding a pair imo as it's just not that many more chips for him to call. Once he bets out on the flop I think pairs make up more than 80% of his range. Also, though this may be way off, I don't think that it's out of the question that some of the time when he just has overcards he talks himself into calling.

So I would fold because I don't think you have enough FE. Like someone else said, I would like this play a lot more if you had a few k more chips.

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I just came up with a relatively small number. I also gave him a hand in the high range of his hands. I felt this would give me a more conservative answer as to whether my play was correct, so it'd be harder to lie to myself. Personally I think 20% is reasonable, I had a very tight table image and people play differently live, more capable of folding when they know they are beat, because they don't want to sit there looking like a giant jackass calling off all their chips with 44 to an overpair when it's obvious thats what I'm representing.


Anyway if you give him something like 22-66 and weight them all evenly (which I think is fair, he will sometimes raise 66, and sometimes fold 22-33), we are getting good odds anyway, so he probably has to fold less than 20% of the time.

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

24,750 games 0.001 secs 24,750,000 games/sec

Board: 7h 5s 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.358% 34.08% 01.27% 8436 315.00 { QhTh }
Hand 1: 64.642% 63.37% 01.27% 15684 315.00 { 66-22 }


(.2*5500 + .8 * .35358 * 11300) - (.8*.64642*7800)=+262.702

So yea if he folds at least 20% of time it is +ev.


It's break even when (x*5500 + (1-x) * .35358 * 11300) - ((1-x)*.64642*7800)=0 x=0.159872

So if he's folding about 16% of the time, it's breakeven. I dunno I just don't see him folding this often, but I have never played live so maybe you are right.