The Bent Coin

[David Sklansky]

I don't think this discussion will have legs because I don't think jason's esoteric comments about probability interest many people here. But I do want to give a precise reply.

Jason says that if I tell you I bent a coin but don't show it to you, you cannot state the probability as to whether a flip will come up heads. If asked, the answer is "I don't have enough information."

I say that the information you have, in this case only the fact that there is two alternatives, allows you to break even on your bets if you flip a "fair" coin, use the the result of that flip to choose a side for the bent coin and get even money on your bets. You would win getting eleven to ten.

Any other definition of probability seems silly. Because you NEVER in real life have enough information. There is no fair coin.

There is more to be said but this will get things started.