"My biggest position" thread

[Jcrew]

I look at all the relevant parties and try to figure out their possible motivations and assign subjective likelihoods to them based on known information(valuation metrics, macro trends, tender conditions, positions, etc.) and my own personal view of human nature(Sklansky method!).

I actually don't have much conviction in this particular position, but the payout is worth the risk in this case.