Bayesian Minds?

[luckyme]

How would you describe the decision making we've evolved to have. We meet one-of-a-kind situations constantly and we typically use background probabilities and adjust for current variables to resolve a lot of them. It has a bayesian look to it ( we don't assume 'equally valid' solutions) and we are reasonably good at it when the situation is 'typical' or perhaps 'experienced many times over our evolutionary history'. It seems to work terribly in more unusual situations. Are we using some cookie-cutter approach in those cases or bayesian misfiring?

I suspect that's because we're doing it in non-verbal and non-mathematical formats. That could explain the difference in performance when the same problem is posed with people involved rather than more unusual and less concrete variables, for example.

Dennett describes a Multiple Draft model, is it some bayesian-formed "most likely" that is the final draft?

Any decent layman reading on the topic to suggest?

luckyme