#9
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Re: am i overthinking this draw?
[ QUOTE ]
On the flop you most likely need a straight flush to win. If your opponents doesn't already have a boat, then at least two of your flush outs will make them a boat, leaving you with at most 7 outs and no way of knowing which are good. Those 7 outs must be counted down due to reverse implied odds, you making the flush and no boat, the boat can still come on the river approx. 6 outs to your opponents. That will leave you with 5 outs or thereabouts if we are optimistic. Not even close to getting implied odds. Fold on flop. [/ QUOTE ] i may need a straight flush to win this pot outright, but my curiosity is more about bet-sizing, and recognizing when it is worth it for me to play a side pot. Everyone seems to be putting the SB on an ace in this scenario. I'm not sure the reasoning behind this. It seems like a fairly standard 2/3ish cbet, designed to fold out any hands without an ace. also, SB must be aware how difficult it will be for me to continue in the hand facing a bet and a push, no matter how small the push may be. Am I crazy for thinking the SB does not need an ace to make this bet? or that the action seems equally reasonable for the two players ahead of me to be holding mid pairs? i understand everyone's reasoning for the flop fold, but i feel that there could be value in playing the side pot against an opponent whose range includes as many hands without aces as hands with -- especially given the two aces on the flop, it is less likely that either of the two remaining are held by the SB. is there any value in these considerations, or does everyone still think I'm way off base? am i giving the SB too much credit when I worry about him leaving room to re-push? |
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