A Math Magic God Problem

[David Sklansky]

I want to pin down Pair The Board and others as to what exactly their contention is regarding using probability to measure the likelihood that an event was caused by God or some other supernatural power.

Consider this scenario.

A man bursts upon the scene proclaiming that he was sent by God to convert people to his religion. As evidence, he does something astonishing and seemingly unexplainable. It doesn't matter what. Perhaps he makes the sun appear purple or he puts random books into his briefcase and then takes them out five seconds later and they are translated into Chinese. For months, no one can think of any way he could do this demonstrtion via trickery, and sceptics reluctantly come to the conclusion that he is probably telling the truth.

Then one day a famous magician duplicates the "trick". And he explains how he did it. Sceptics breathe a sigh of relief. But the guy doesn't change his claims. He simply admits that this brilliant magician figured out a non supernatural way to do the same thing. But it isn't how he does it. He does it with God's powers.

My question is whether it makes sense at this point to try to rigorously come up with a number that captures the probability that the guy is a fraud. Commonsensically almost everyone would be virtually certain he was, once a magician duplicated what he did. But is there a RIGOROUS mathematical or statistical argument that would agree with common sense and perhaps even help assign a precise probaility to him being a fraud. My guess is yes. How bout some mathmeticians and statisticians weighing in.