One In A Googol vs One In A Googolplex

[David Sklansky]

I've often toyed with having a bit of fun with these two numbers as it applies to probability questions especially since it was my father's math professor who coined those words. A googol is ten to the hundredth power. In other words one followed by one hundred zeroes. A googolplex is ten to the googleth power. One followed by a googol zeroes.

I am going to periodically start a thread asking about the probability of extremely unlikely events. In each case I will ask which of three categories the answer is:

A. More common than one/googol.

B. Rarer than one in a googol but more common than one in a googolplex.

C. Rarer than one/googolplex.

THESE QUESTIONS ARE ONLY DIRECTED TOWARD THOSE WHO ARE NOT GOOD AT MATH. If you are, you will spoil the fun by answering them. In fact it won't be fun if even the math challenged try to calculate the answer. Better they just give their gut feelings.

A, B, or C?

1. The chances that you will win the next 100 lotteries in a row.

2. The chances that a specific player will hit 500 homeruns this year, assuming everything is random and he normally hits 10.

3. Your 90 year old grandmother's next 50 bowling games are 300.

4. Every single time a poker machine is played for the next million years it will deal a pat Royal Flush.

5. Your pet parrot, who has been taught to randomly speak every individual sound in the English language, randomly recites Hamlet.

6. All players who are capable of reaching the cup from outside the green always sink their chip or drive and never have to put again for the next 50 years.

I mean for all these questions to be pure probability questions regarding multiple independent events with no funny business or divine intervention going on. I think even the most ardent atheist would admit that if any of these things happened it would more likely be the work of a designer than a miniscule underdog coming in randomly. But for the purpose of these questions we assume that isn't happenning.