Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > Other Poker > Stud
FAQ Community Calendar Today's Posts Search

 
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Prev Previous Post   Next Post Next
  #11  
Old 05-17-2007, 11:34 AM
PoorLawyer PoorLawyer is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 2,270
Default Re: Stud hi: What\'s your plan when 3-bet on 3rd by an overpair?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
One is an "absolute or constant" with Monty, with a poker table the range is 0 to 3 (or 8 if you like). Its Random, not constant.

[/ QUOTE ]
I see. There is definitely a prize in the Monte puzzle, and we are only concerned with finding it. In the poker game there may or may not be a good hand out there.

I shall retire to the study to ponder.

Have I mentioned how much fun it is to read y'all? It's great fun. Thank you.

[/ QUOTE ]
Steve, you have now shifted this thread from Stud (something I know precious little about) to the Monty Hall problem (something I actually know quite a bit about). Thank you.

Re: Monty. The way the problem is presented is of utmost importance. In order for you to have an advantage by switching doors, Monty must have shown you a door with a goat INTENTIONALLY and not RANDOMLY when he revealed one. Why? Because he knows where the prize is, and by showing you a goat he is essentially giving you a "tell". If he chooses the door at random, and happens to show a goat, it's still 33% that your door had the prize and 33% that the other door had the prize. What happened to the last 33%? The goat ate it! That is, the other 33% of the time Monty will have accidentally revealed the prize and that makes your choose moot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, so I have to ask for a clarification here. There is one prize and 2 goats behind 3 doors, correct? 33% chance by just picking a door that you'll win your washer/dryer combo and a year's supply of tide. Monte opens a door and there is a goat behind it. Whether Monte picked his door intentionally or not, there are 2 doors left and one of them has a goat and one has a prize.

What makes your choice of door not 50-50 to win? Why would switching doors change those odds? how would this change if you would rather win the goat because your mom washes your clothes anyway?
Reply With Quote
 


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:04 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.