TomG's Robot Professional MLB Betting

[Homer]

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Would it be too conservative to add 5-6% to your "true line" to get an "unknown error adjusted line" and use that?

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Hmm it doesn't make sense to me to add additional noise to the model to account for existing noise. If this model truly is flawed/broken I'd rather just ditch it.

Here they are the "true lines" for the picks I posted...

Chicago Cubs +113 (True Line -122)
San Francisco +102 (True Line -140)
Colorado +104 (True Line -112)
LA Dodgers -145 (True Line -222)
Toronto -157 (True Line -274)
Seattle +127 (True Line -102)

I'm concerned when I saw Crockpot (a poster I respect a lot) fading my Dodgers pick and Giants picks.

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I think he's just saying if your true line is +100 (50%), don't bet it unless you can get +122 (55%) on one side or the other.