FTP $330 Bubble Play. At the time it seemed like a good idea...

[z32fanatic]

This hand just happened on the bubble of a $330 and I thought I'd share it to get some reactions/comments. I minraised so this exact situation could happen, just because it puts the SB in a really bad spot because the BB will be getting great odds to call if he pushes. FWIW I think ideally the SB should just call with anything less than JJ here, but obviously he isn't thinking that. My minraise here isn't really what I'm debating about, it's the call after the SB shoves and is overcalled by the BB.

When the hand played out just as I'd hoped, I immediately thought I should fold just so I could have a chance to freeroll ITM. Then after it was on me again to call/fold, I realized that if I won the hand I would have ~4700 chips. Obviously the problem is that I MUST finish in 1st place out of the 3 of us in order to not bubble.

I also think the BB is probably a favorite over the SB, just because people generally don't like to overcall here with trash hands even though they're getting the correct odds to.

Just for fun I put the SB on a range of 22+,A2s+,K9s+,QJs,A2o+,K9o+ and the BB on a range of 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A5o+,KTo+,QJo

I don't even know how I feel about these ranges, but that's what I feel they're calling and overcalling with.
That leaves my options as:
A) Fold and get ITM ~50% of the time.
B) Call and lose 68% of the time according to my reads and pokerstove.
C) Call and have ~5k chips ITM 32% of the time.


Full Tilt Poker Game #2436657040: $330 + $20 Sit & Go (Turbo) (18459937), Table 1 - 250/500 - No Limit Hold'em - 3:46:53 ET - 2007/05/16
Seat 2: titantom32 (2,580)
Seat 4: z32fanatic (1,480)
Seat 6: ktd2005 (1,680)
Seat 8: ComputerhandQ7 (7,760)
ktd2005 posts the small blind of 250
ComputerhandQ7 posts the big blind of 500
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to z32fanatic [Kc Qd]
titantom32 folds
z32fanatic raises to 1,000
ktd2005 raises to 1,680, and is all in
ComputerhandQ7 has 15 seconds left to act
ComputerhandQ7 calls 1,180
z32fanatic folds


So yeah, let me know what you think of this play.