KTo on A high flop

[DakotaKid]

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You're over-counting your outs.

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When I first read this hand I was thinking about 3 outs.

That was just a guess figuring K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] are bad much of the time, the remaining T good most of the time, and the other K's maybe half the time (behind QJ or any Ax two pair).

Does anyone really quantify these estimates with any more accuracy than this?

For instance, we could figure out statistically the chance that one of the four opponents (with random starting hands) has a heart draw and discount accordingly.

Come to think of it, maybe it'd be a good idea for a post to set up a "count your outs..." quiz of some kind. I might put some scenerios together where I get into trouble.