how do they do it

[jt1]

Yea, as other have said - capping only makes sense if Villain won't ever 4bet and won't ever continue on the river. It's a 7 bb pot that Hero turns into a 9 bb pot so villain has to cap 10% of the time which he obviously won't but if he ever continues UI on river than that # drops. Say he continues on river 1/4 times: Villain has to 3bet 8% of the time to break even. It drops to 5% when villain bluffs the river half the time.

I guess it's not "truly awful" like I said. A better description is truly risky. By the way, I don't like using total AF to determine how often a player semi-bluffs or bluffs. I doubt any player with a pfr of just 10% will ever have a high total AF no matter how often he semi-bluffs, excluding post flop manaics. I prefer to use the turn and river AF: If the turn is around 2 (depending on vpip) and/or the river AF is higher than the turn AF than I know that villain is aggro. Also, AF needs several hundred hands to be even close to a usuable stat. Leader once told me that after 20k hands, AF still has a standard deviation of 25%. And so against someone with whom you don't see often, you should get to the SD even more often.