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Old 05-11-2007, 10:37 AM
fretelöo fretelöo is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,495
Default Re: Turn: 8d

hum...

Well, everyone seems to like a call...

Cryptologic
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 5 folds, Hero calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4SB, 4 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6BB, 4 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (10BB, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls.

My thoughts: UTG plays virtually anything. I have no idea what he has - he might just have rivered a str8 with 56o fwiw -, but he might also just have some random something that he choses to bet with, given that everyone just checked.
BB seems to have gone pretty quiet after he bet the flop. I expect him to fold here pretty often. He's very likely on some draw, maybe JQ or something.
SB is my real concern. He coldcalled my flop raise and donked the turn. From some passive guy, I'd expect a real hand here. At the same time, it seems not to be good enough for a river bet. Thus I excluded any 2pr or better. Leaves some top- or middle pair type of hand. I could easily see him have JTo or QTo here, getting worried by all the calls on this - by now - relatively coordinated board, thus checking the river.

So, while all in all I still don't hate my hand, I don't think it's good enough for a showdown against three villains. Assuming that BB will fold very often against agression, it becomes the question of a) how often does SB have me beat with the line he took and b) how often do I get him to fold to a raise (keep in mind that his wsd% was reasonable).
And, well, though I nowhere nearly have enough hands to claim that I can back this up any further, I assumed that my best chances of winning this pot was by raising, essentially forcing him to fold whatever sub-monster hand he has...
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