... and here comes the next... (Playalong)

[Douglas Leslie]

... but what now? What hands do we put villains on, what do we do, based on that?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that SB has an eight, paired or otherwise. The read on him is that he is passive, but does not call down on bad hands. I think he would have folded to the flop raise if he had an eight, and similarly he would have folded if he had a piece of the flop less than a ten. He is playing his hand as if he has a draw, which means he probably has 52 or 65. His bet on the turn suggests that he has specifically two diamonds in his hand. So I am guessing that you are ahead of SB but he has fifteen outs against you. Given that BB has called the turn bet by SB, I think that we can discount some of his weaker holdings and place him more often than not with a ten which might or might not have you outkicked. UTG could be playing with tarot cards for all the chance we have of reading his hand. He could have just about anything with the remotest connection with the flop, and possibly some hands that don't connect at all. So we are possibly behind BB and around half the deck is likely to beat us on the river even if we are ahead (crediting BB and UTG with around four outs apiece). The flop raise was marginal but, with SB coming to life it is time to call the turn. I can't see that there is enough EV to raise here.
If I have read SB wrongly, we are almost certainly behind which makes a raise even more unattractive.