Best Case Scenario in 5-10 Years?

[cuserounder]

After all the legislation has gone through Congress, and let's assume (I know, huge assumption - but for this discussion...) that the US government regulates online poker. What's our best case scenario? The government is going to get a huge chunk, and US companies running these sites may feel they have a corner on the market and bump up the rake.

I could see it being 10% rake to the house, 5% to the government.. Or worse. There's been talk of automatic tax witholding from each table you play, or each day, or each cash out.. Obviously per cash out is pretty reasonable, per table is a nightmare.

So what's the best case? I'll lay out a couple of options:

1.
No licensing fee for the right to have an online poker room, 5% of each pot to the house 2-3% to the government. Taxes are withheld each time you cash out above your initial deposit. So essentially the only change is you have to pay taxes and 2-3% per pot.

2.
There is a hefty licensing fee, and then the government doesn't worry about getting a cut of each pot.. Taxes are withheld each time you cash out.

Either of these realistic? Will it be better or worse?