Re: a concept borrowed from NL
other factors to consider:
If the player has a weak but showdown worthy hand he's more likely to just check the river again to induce the bluff or take the showdown. This is the majority of the range that you're hoping to fold out. When he bets the river, the soft middle part of his range should be discounted in favor of the made hands and pure bluffs. This means that when you consider the river action your best options are still probably call or fold.
It would probably be a better line to bluffraise with a worse hand (like a low busted draw) since there's a wider range of bluff/fold hands he can have in that spot that would win accidentally.
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