a concept borrowed from NL

[Josh.]

in NL, when faced with a bet on the river and you can't decide whether to fold or call, you're often better off throwing in a raise vs an opponent capable of making thin value bets. a big reason why it works is because by the time you've gotten to the river, your opponent figures you to have some sort of made hand, and is only able to beat a made hand-turned-bluff. many unsophisticated players are unaware of this play and as a result quickly fold since the opponent just "can't" be bluffing.

quick nl example: opponent raises on the button and you call with 88. the flop comes 974r and you c/c. the turn is a J and you both check. the river is a 3. you check and he bets. imo, this is a good time to raise because (1) there are many big hands (straights, sets, 2 pairs) that you'd play this exact way and very few hopeless ones, (2) your opponent most likely has at best 1 pair, and (3) he can easily be bluffing so you think it's close between calling and folding. by raising you expect to blow him off the majority of his hands. you COULD call, but by raising you not only still beat his worse hands, but you beat some of his thinner value bets as well by making them fold. i believe this idea can be adapted for use in limit games as well.

in limit obviously it's harder to pull this off because most people can't fold an ace getting 8-1, but there are occasions where a good hand reading opponent can't put you on a bluff and will be able to lay down the bottom portion of his range. this can be a huge coup in a limit game, where a 1 BB bluff can yield you many times that amount, and needn't work all the often. so while it may be harder to pull off, if used correctly this can be a hugely profitable play.

i was screwing around at limit on stars today and the following hand came up:

i raise the button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and a good, aggressive player who checkraises a lot calls in the BB.

flop (headsup for 2.25 bb) is J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. he checks and i check. i'm pretty sure he's seen me not c-bet a few times and probably puts me on something like an underpair, A high, or something hopeless that i decided to just give up with.

turn (headsup for 2.25 bb) is Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. he bets and i call because his preflop range is very wide, and his turn betting range is probably near 100%. i have a gutter, a bad over, probable 3-4 outs to a chop, and a good % of the time i the best hand. i ran a quick sim and i'm 30% vs { 77-22, A8s-A2s, K9s-K2s, QTs-Q2s, J2s+, T7s+, 96s+, 85s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A9o-A2o, K9o-K5o, QTo-Q5o, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o } so i think it's justified getting over 3-1 with position even if he's not betting any 2

river (headsup for 4.25 bb)is [J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

he bets. when i call the turn, i think he can put me on a range of something like underpair, stubborn ace, Q7o-Q5o, Q7s-Q2s (i've been stealing at a very high rate). so as a result, given the river pairing the Q i might've hit, he can expect any pair to be safely ahead of my calling range for the river, and make some thin value bets (that he value bets thin is key, because those are the hands i'm trying to push him off). i think he can also be bluffing some % of the time because i look weak.

so when he bets it's very tempting to pay him off. but if i throw in a raise i think i can get him off most of his weaker hands. he's a good enough player to know that i'm definitely raising with any Q on the river, and it's hard to imagine me raising with a hand that has showdown value like Ax or an underpair.

i'm pretty rusty and my assumptions may be wrong. am i wrong to think that he could occasionally throw away 77, A8, 97. etc getting 7.25-1, assuming my image isn't too crazy and spewy?