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Noob question about pushing preflop late in a tourney.
I'm a pretty inexperienced tourney player, though I've had some okay results. Just got through playing the $550 Short Handed tourney at Crown Casino. I cashed, but I'm not sure aboutone of my last hands.
Basically I had been quite lucky throughout, very aggressive and had a pretty laggy image. I had to shut up shop for a while as a result of this, and I had been pretty card dead. So the blinds are $3000/$6000 and it is folded around to me in the small blind. I have about $60,000 and the big blind has $42,000 after posting. So anyway, this guy is pretty tight, and I think probably the weakest spot on the table (except perhaps for the drunken and maniac chip leader 2 to my left, but he's not going to give up on his blinds easily). I look down at K3 of diamonds, and I push. He picks up AK, calls and wins the pot. Now is this a standard push by me? I attempted to crunch the numbers, but I suck at maths so I was wondering if someone could double check for me... I figure villain calls with AJ and better and 88 and better. I think that's a pretty generous range, and it constitutes 6.8% of possible holdings. Against that range I have 31.4% equity if called. So, 93.2% of the time I win the $9000 pot without a fight. 6.8% of the time I am called. When I am called, I win the $9000 pot + his remaining $42000 ($51000) 31.4% of the time, and I lose $45000 68.6% of the time. So, the ev is: EV = (93.2% * $9000) + 6.8% * [(31.4% * 5100) + (68.6% * -$45000) = $8388 + 6.8% * ($1601.4 - $3087) = $8388 + 6.8% * -$1485.6 = $8388 - $101.02 = $8286.98 Is that right? If so, I need to push preflop more often! |
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