Book Review: Killer Poker by the Numbers, by Tony Guerrera

[Collin Moshman]

Hi Guys,

I had a traumatic experience recently -- I actually read, in its entirety, “Winner’s Guide to Omaha Poker” by Ken Warren. After 208 pages of 14-point font, we learn that hand selection is indeed important when playing Omaha. How rare in a poker variation!

So I swore off the hype books. I therefore would not have read this “Killer Poker” book before I realized the author was an undergrad buddy of mine and I got curious.

What follows is hopefully not just a book review, but the basis for some interesting no-limit discussion. (And incidentally, while the title does not specify, the book centers around no-limit cash play.)

Chapter 1: Analytic Tools, begins with the following question: suppose you have A K, raise pre-flop, and have N opponents. Supposing these opponents hold two random cards, what is the probability at least one will hit an unpaired flop? Table 1.1 is the first of many great tables in this book, and it tells us that N = 1 => 65% likely nobody hits, up through N = 9 => 1% likely nobody hits.

Then Tony asks: Suppose you make a 2/3 pot continuation bet: how many opponents can you have before this bet is no longer profitable, assuming your bet is called/raised if and only if (iff) an opponent pairs? Answer: N = 2 is slightly profitable, and N > 2 no longer profitable. This example ends with the author critiquing his own assumptions (e.g., that players will call your pre-flop A K raise with two random cards, play back iff they hit one pair or better, etc.) and cautiouns that all such models should have their assumptions questioned.

In pp. 20-30 of the same chapter, the author tells how to do the probability math to determine commonly asked hold ‘em questions, e.g., he demonstrates that there are 19,600 possible flop combinations, of which 5,676 contain an ace or king. If you know the math or just want the answers, you can skip this stuff. But for those who like solving these problems for themselves and/or forgot how to do these calculations, it is solid material.

Chapter 2: EV & Odds gives begins the process of how to logically put your opponent on a hand based on his actions so far. E.g., pre-flop he would call with this distribution, but when he raises your flop bet we can narrow it to this smaller distribution, etc. Pot odds, reverse implied odds, expected value, and so forth are all well covered here for those needing a refresher. More good stuff.

But in this chapter arises my first problem with the book: I think a lot of the formatting and notation is poorly chosen and makes parts of the text unnecessarily dense. Example 1: Opponent is on {9 9+, A Js+, A K} would appear in Killer Poker in interval notation:

[AA, 99] || [A Ks, A Js,] || [A Ko].

Minor, perhaps. A bigger problem to me is the use of MCU charts to describe hands. I prefer paragraph form, the 2+2 format, … just not these cumbersome two-page charts.
Also, Tony, on p. 60, are you suggesting it’s never correct to open-limp from late position with a low pocket pair?

Chapter 3: Unpaired Flops & Paired Flops has an excellent slew of probability tables pertaining to how various flops are likely to have hit N opponents on specific distributions. E.g., “Table 3.9: Approximate Probability you’re beaten when against N player on the [JJ,22] || [AK, AJ] || [KQ] Distribution when the Flop is A A 3 and you hold J J.”

I believe this is also the chapter where the author introduces the phrase “hit to win.” He goes on to give details about his style of play which are good, but I fear a new player seeing that phrase over and over could be in trouble if he is playing a deep-stacked full ring game and is willing to get all his chips in with TPTK against heavy action. I find “hit to win” a misleading phrase.

Chapter 4: Hit-to-win Poker with Pocket Pairs: More solid probability tables pertaining to Hero holding a pocket pair, e.g., Table 4.8 giving the probability of hitting an unpaired, “nondangerous” flop as a function of that pair. (Tony goes into some detail about what constitutes a dangerous flop). Hand analyses, such as the dynamics of deep-stacked overpair versus flopped set play (pp. 141-149), are very thought-provoking – but they require serious effort to wade through the unbroken text, MCU charts, interval notation, PX player labels, and tree diagrams.

Chapter 5: Drawing Hands Derives pre-flop probability of flopping all sorts of hands – 1 pair, 2-pair, made flush, etc. The post-flop outs material is more thorough than most, as the author considers the effects of redraws extensively. More strategy is discussed, such as the merits of betting out from early position with draws, the “14-outer principle,” and semi-bluffing. Regarding the latter and bet-sizing, for instance, Tony writes:

“If the amount you bet with your semi-bluffs and your made hands is identical, you make it very difficult for your opponents to make optimum decisions … If you are playing against opponents who allow you to bet less with your semi-bluffs (say 40% of the pot) without being aware and without fighting back … you are getting fold equity and you are getting to draw for the cheapest price possible….”

He goes on to note: “By betting smaller in relation to the pot, some opponents will think that you are trying to trap them. If you can draw for less and simultaneously increase your fold equity, then you are getting the best of both worlds.”

Good stuff.

Chapter 6: Shorthanded Play I am not a short-handed cash strategy expert, but the advice seemed quite sound. For instance, the section “Third Time’s the Adjustment” … so suppose the first three times you post your big blind, the button open-raises to 3 BB. Tony shows that by the 3rd time this happens, you can be pretty sure this tendency of the button’s is exploitable due to the improbability of his having a legitimate hand (he gives distribution details I’ll omit here) three straight times.

I have to disagree with the rule stated on p. 237, however, which states:

“Never Buy in for Less than 25 BB in a game with a 100+ BB Max Buy-in when you Opponent has 100+ BB”

Sklansky/Miller go into exceptions in NLT&P, and I have a yet-unpublished article on precisely this topic. Needless to say, the statement is far too extreme.

Chapter 7: Tournament Play Discusses tournament play, of course. Gives the most important difference between tourney and cash, namely chip EV versus $ EV. Pre-flop matchup probabilities are a dime a dozen, but for good reason, and Tony’s are pretty extensive.

What I like most about this chapter, however, is the sophisticated discussion of approximations usually taken for granted. Through analytic means and computer simulations, Tony shows the merit (or lack thereof) in accounting for clumping, independence, and overcallers. Consider clumping -- the idea that if players start folding behind you, they are more likely to hold weaker hands, and so subsequent players are more likely to hold stronger hands. If you want to know if there is any merit to this idea, check out the two-page Table 7.7: “Clumping Errors as a Function of the Number of Folders in Front of You.”

Chapter 8: Closing Thoughts Short and interesting chapter on pot commitment and live poker jackpots. Tony asserts that in tournament play, many players call due to seeming pot commitment when in fact, they could fold. I like this sentiment, but disagree with the specific example given:

Tournament down to 5 players. Blinds 1000-2000. You have 7000 left, remaining players all between 3BB – 8BB stacks. Wide pushing distributions, narrow calling distributions. You are in the big blind with 8 3o and the button open-pushes for 3500. The SB folds.

Tony suggests folding despite the incredible pot odds, because the extra 1500 chips you are risking will dramatically decrease your stealing fold equity if you lose. I appreciate the meta-concerns here, but the way I see it, you are getting way better odds than you need; if you call and lose you are right back in after a single double-up; and you could win, placing you among the chip leaders and in prime position to aggress.


Also, each chapter ends with problems followed by Tony’s solutions, and they tend to be very interesting ones. Here are two from Chapter 6.

Problem #1: 4-handed $200 buy-in NL game with $1-$2 blinds. Hyper-aggressive maniac is raising to $15 or so almost every hand. You and he both have at least $200 behind you. What hands should you play and how should you exploit this guy?

Problem #3: $100 buy-in, $0.50-$1 blinds. 5-handed. You have K K in the big blind. All fold to the button, who is playing shallow with $25. He raises to $5. You are running software that says he has seen 9% of flops and raised 1% over a 200-hand sample size. The small blind folds. What’s your play?

I paid $11 for this book. There appear to be three other editions listed on Amazon for $25 and up (the $11 version can be found specifically at:
http://www.amazon.com/Killer-Poker-Numbe...64&sr=8-2).

I want to end this review with an objective statement:

If you play any form of no limit hold ‘em, then even if you happened to disagree with every single piece of strategy advice Tony gives, the probability reference material alone will still make buying this book for $11 a +EV decision.


Best Regards,
Collin