Smoking vs. Risk of Ruin
I am a smoker who would like to quit. I've actually made a start on this by getting prescribed patches. Unfortunately so far I haven't managed to get on a 'run' with them. Anyway, I just had a train of thought where I found myself comparing giving up smoking to the risk of ruin model. If you have a set bankroll and a set level of play and you always withdraw whenever you go over your set bankroll level, then your RoR is 1, i.e. if you plan to play indefinitely using this system you are 100% likely to go broke at some point. Similarly, if you smoke indefinitely and live indefinitely, your risk of dying of a smoking-related disease is also 100%. HOWEVER, just by being born, your risk of dying SOMEHOW is already 100%. What justification is there for aggressively minimising certain methods of actualising your risk of ruin? Is this a utility value issue?
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